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Appendices

The Oslo Report[71]: How much does the Oslo process really cost us? (1/4)

Preface

It's a little hard to remember, but 20 years ago, before the Oslo Accords, there was no separation fence, and there was neither a huge pool of missiles and rockets in the Gaza Strip nor security guards at every shopping mall or kindergarten. A reckless decision with a lot of euphoria changed our lives dramatically, and brought in tens of thousands of terrorists along with their weapons. This decision effectively placed the State of Israel on the path of a phased plan[72] for its elimination. The painful disillusionment that halted the continuation of the process as planned, has not yet fundamentally changed the mindset that the Oslo agreement has brought to the world. The Oslo process[73] actually goes on, when the mindset is that we, the occupiers, have to compensate the "locals" for the land we took from them, or to break away from those areas, the cradle of our culture, in order to gain recognition from our enemies.

In this study, we are interested in bringing to the public and decision-makers important information about the heavy economic cost that we have paid, and continue to pay, for taking this path.

Introduction

In the summer of 1993, 20 years ago, Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres on behalf of the State of Israel, and Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas on behalf of the "Palestine Liberation Organization" signed the Oslo Accords.

The agreement included, among other things, mutual "recognition" and a declaration of an end to the violence between the sides, and was intended to serve as the basis for a final final peace between Israel and the "Palestinians"

In practical terms (territorial, legal, etc.), the agreement was not final. It included an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and Jericho, and later additional agreements were signed, according to which Israel would also withdraw from Judea and Samaria.

The Oslo agreement was a fundamental change in Israel's policy because:

From the partition plan in 1947, in the wake of which the State of Israel was established, until the Madrid Conference in 1991, the Arab states, particularly Jordan and Egypt, represented the "Palestinian issue" with Israel and the world as part of the contacts to resolve the Israeli-Arab conflict.

Since 1993, when the Oslo process began, Israel recognized the existence of a "Palestinian people", recognized its rights, recognized the PLO as a state-like partner in a peace process, transferred control over most of Judea, Samaria and Gaza, authorized tens of thousands of its members, who until then had been considered terrorists, to enter these areas so that they could control them according to the agreement, and armed them with Israeli weapons. Without a doubt a very fundamental change, whose goal was to end decades of murderous violence and put an end to the conflict.

Today, twenty years later, it is possible to establish as a point of fact that the goal was not achieved because:

  1. Since Oslo, terrorism has not ended, but rather the reverse has happened. The number of terror victims in Israel has jumped threefold, and the number of wounded by a factor of 18! On a multi-year average[74], terrorism has continued on a daily basis since then.

  2. After 20 years of negotiations with unprecedented international aid, neither the end of the "process", the end of violence, nor the end of the conflict have been achieved. In the Gaza Strip, a terrorist entity has been established that threatens the entire southern and central part of the State of Israel with high trajectory weaponry. In Judea and Samaria, a terrorist entity was created that created suicide terrorism that severely damaged the country until the state handed over control the area during Operation Defensive Shield.

  3. Worst of all, the State of Israel is in a situation where it today seeks legitimacy (recognition as a Jewish state) from an organization that until twenty years ago was not legitimate at all.

This document was not intended to give grades to the Israeli leaders who signed the Oslo Accords, and have continued the process for the past 20 years, but is examining the economic aspect only. How much the Oslo process has cost us, and continues to cost us, in money, in relation to the most obvious and reasonable alternative of continuing the situation that existed in the 26 years preceding the Oslo process; i.e., full Israeli security and administrative control over all of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip.

Put simply, the Oslo process has been going on for 20 years and so far its goal has not been achieved. How much has it cost us?

Explanation of calculation method

The situation in respect of which we consider the price of the twenty years of the Oslo process is the situation that existed in the territories of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip before the Oslo Accords. At the time, Israel controlled the entire territory and its borders with full civil and economic security control, which gave it a strong governmental influence on the population and accessibility to every person and every place. During this period, there were no weapons in Judea, Samaria and Gaza except for individual weapons held in secret by terrorists.

The situation after Oslo is that in a large part of this area there are two entities that function almost like states, "the Palestinian Authority" in Judea and Samaria and Hamas in Gaza. The violence from these areas against Israel continues since:

  1. In these areas, there are currently huge weapons stockpiles without Israeli control.

  2. In the absence of Israeli control over the area, it is far more difficult and costly to prevent terrorism from outside.

  3. Unsuccessful terror exacts a higher price because of its ability to exploit its control of the territory it has been given.

Components of the economic price

Caveat: It is not possible to exact the price of the costs, because for understandable reasons, some of them are not published in detail. In this framework, we will attempt to provide as close an approximation as the available data permits. The following are expenditure items created as a result of the Oslo process:

  1. Transfer of funds to the "Palestinian Authority" created by the Oslo Accords.

  2. The additional cost of GSS activity in territories transferred to "Palestinians".

  3. The additional cost of IDF activity.

  4. The additional cost of the Ministry of Public Security, and damage from vehicle thefts.

  5. Adding civilian security guards everywhere in Israel.

  6. Construction of the separation fence around the territories that were handed over to the "Palestinians".

  7. The "value" of victims of hostilities.

  8. The fall in tourism revenues during the peak years of terror.

  9. The cost of evacuating the Jews from Gush Katif.

[71] This appendix was previously published as a position paper by the R & D department of the Manhigut Yehudit movement.

[72] Wikipedia – The phased plan of the PLO.

[73] The Oslo process in this document includes not only the signing of the Oslo Accords, but also the conceptual change included in this process, including the Wye Agreement, the attempted Camp David Accords, and the plan to evacuate Jews from Gush Katif.

[74] See below in the section on victims of hostilities.

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